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Can Molina Healthcare Overcome Lower Premiums and Higher MCR in Q3?
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Key Takeaways
Molina Healthcare's Q3 earnings are projected to plunge 60.9%, with revenues expected to decline 4.8%.
MOH's premium revenues are expected to fall 4.9%, while its medical care ratio is projected to rise to 93%.
Molina Healthcare's membership is forecast to drop 12.7%, led by a 63% plunge in Marketplace enrollment.
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at 72 cents per shareon revenues of $10.93 billion.
The third-quarter earnings estimate witnessed two downward revisions and no upward revisions over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 60.9%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies a year-over-year decrease of 4.8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina Healthcare’s revenues is pegged at $44.47 billion, implying a decline of 2.1% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $5.28, indicating a 52.1% year-over-year decrease.
Molina Healthcare’searnings beat the consensus estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being negative 183.3%. This is depicted in the figure below.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.
MOH currently has an Earnings ESP of -3.30% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
What’s Shaping MOH’s Q3 Results?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects premium revenues to decline 4.9% year over year from $10.84 billion, as lower revenues from Medicare and Marketplace are expected to outweigh gains from Medicaid. Investment income is also expected to fall 7% to $100.4 million. In contrast, premium tax revenues are forecast to rise 0.6% to $509 million.
Profitability could face additional pressure, with the consensus estimate for the consolidated medical care ratio (MCR) at 93%, up from 92.6% in the year-ago quarter. A higher MCR means the company is expected to spend more on medical care relative to its premium revenue.
Membership trends also point to a weaker quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for total membership to decline 12.7% year over year. Medicaid membership is expected to fall nearly 5%, while Medicare and Marketplace membership could drop 14.6% and 63%, respectively.
With premium revenues, investment income and membership all expected to decline, alongside a higher MCR, the company faces several headwinds heading into the third-quarter report. These pressures could weigh on earnings and make an earnings beat harder to achieve.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Molina Healthcare, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aveanna Healthcare’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter of 20 cents indicates 33.3% year-over-year growth. It has witnessed one upward revision against no downward movement over the past 60 days. The consensus mark for revenues predicts a 9.9% increase from a year ago.
CVS Health Corporation (CVS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVS Health’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 1.3% increase from a year ago. The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 20.5%. The consensus estimate for CVS’ revenues is pegged at $105.04 billion, signaling a 2.1% increase.
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Acadia Healthcare’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 46 cents per share, which remained stable over the past week. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 47%. ACHC’s revenues for the to-be-reported quarter are pegged at $869.26 million, a 2.1% increase from the year-ago period.
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Can Molina Healthcare Overcome Lower Premiums and Higher MCR in Q3?
Key Takeaways
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at 72 cents per shareon revenues of $10.93 billion.
The third-quarter earnings estimate witnessed two downward revisions and no upward revisions over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 60.9%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies a year-over-year decrease of 4.8%.
For 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina Healthcare’s revenues is pegged at $44.47 billion, implying a decline of 2.1% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $5.28, indicating a 52.1% year-over-year decrease.
Molina Healthcare’searnings beat the consensus estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being negative 183.3%. This is depicted in the figure below.
Molina Healthcare, Inc Price and EPS Surprise
Molina Healthcare, Inc price-eps-surprise | Molina Healthcare, Inc Quote
Q3 Earnings Whispers for MOH
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.
MOH currently has an Earnings ESP of -3.30% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
What’s Shaping MOH’s Q3 Results?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects premium revenues to decline 4.9% year over year from $10.84 billion, as lower revenues from Medicare and Marketplace are expected to outweigh gains from Medicaid. Investment income is also expected to fall 7% to $100.4 million. In contrast, premium tax revenues are forecast to rise 0.6% to $509 million.
Profitability could face additional pressure, with the consensus estimate for the consolidated medical care ratio (MCR) at 93%, up from 92.6% in the year-ago quarter. A higher MCR means the company is expected to spend more on medical care relative to its premium revenue.
Membership trends also point to a weaker quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for total membership to decline 12.7% year over year. Medicaid membership is expected to fall nearly 5%, while Medicare and Marketplace membership could drop 14.6% and 63%, respectively.
With premium revenues, investment income and membership all expected to decline, alongside a higher MCR, the company faces several headwinds heading into the third-quarter report. These pressures could weigh on earnings and make an earnings beat harder to achieve.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Molina Healthcare, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.28% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aveanna Healthcare’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter of 20 cents indicates 33.3% year-over-year growth. It has witnessed one upward revision against no downward movement over the past 60 days. The consensus mark for revenues predicts a 9.9% increase from a year ago.
CVS Health Corporation (CVS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVS Health’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 1.3% increase from a year ago. The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 20.5%. The consensus estimate for CVS’ revenues is pegged at $105.04 billion, signaling a 2.1% increase.
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Acadia Healthcare’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 46 cents per share, which remained stable over the past week. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 47%. ACHC’s revenues for the to-be-reported quarter are pegged at $869.26 million, a 2.1% increase from the year-ago period.